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INDEPENDENT SPORTS ANALYSIS

Find the logic
in the game.

We look for it in the numbers. Explain every pick.
And publish every result, without exception.

View predictions ↗How we choose →
01 / FOOTBALLStarting with football. More to come.
↗Reasoned selections◉Transparent statistics≋Every result archived↗Currently free to access
01 / THE DAILY PICKS

Analysis comes first.

Free access
Today's picksArchive 10
Awaiting settlement

Safe Standard — 25 October 2026

Hoffenheim — Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen team total over 1.5 goals · 1.63

Why this selection

Leverkusen scored at least twice in each of their last ten competitive matches: mean goals scored 2.80, median 2. In the current Bundesliga season alone, the selection would have won six out of six, with a mean of 2.67 and a median of 2; away from home, three out of three. Friendlies are excluded. Their league goals include two against Leipzig, two against Freiburg and four against Union, so the run is not confined to cup ties and weaker European opponents. However, the three league away games are a small sample against Mainz, Augsburg and Elversberg. Hoffenheim conceded 14 goals in six rounds and at least two in four matches. Their recent 3:0 win over Lyon suggests their defence may be improving. The team total allows scores such as 0:2, 2:2 or a 3:2 home win, without requiring Leverkusen to win. The main risks are the trip to Crete on 22 October, limited recovery time and attacking absences. Schick, Maza and Diaby appear in the Bundesliga predicted line-up; the official starting XI had not been checked at publication. A run of 10 out of 10 does not imply a 100% probability.

Barcelona — Real Madrid

Match total over 2.5 goals · 1.18

Why this selection

Over 2.5 goals landed in all ten of Barcelona’s last ten competitive matches: mean match total 5.80, median 6. All four home games in that sample went over. Real Madrid recorded eight out of ten, with a mean of 3.90 and a median of 4.5; away from home, three out of four. Friendlies are excluded. Big wins over weaker opponents inflate the means, but high-scoring matches also included PSG, Roma and Leipzig. The match total counts goals by either team: 2:1, 1:2 and 3:0 all qualify, with no requirement for both teams to score or Barcelona to win. There is no need to raise the line to three or four goals just to increase the odds: this double already exceeds 1.80. Risks include a cautious match and a total stopping at two goals; the previous Clásico ended 2:0. Vinícius is suspended and Rodrygo is injured; Barcelona have defensive absences and Dani Olmo is unavailable. Official starting line-ups had not been checked at publication. Predicted line-ups are not confirmed line-ups.

COMBINED DECIMAL ODDS@1.92

Winline — screenshots supplied by the user on 25 October 2026: Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen, Leverkusen team total over 1.5 at 1.63, captured at 05:36; Barcelona vs Real Madrid, match total over 2.5 at 1.18, captured at 05:38 Israel time. Kick-offs: 16:30 and 22:00 respectively, Israel time. The exact product is 1.9234, displayed as 1.92 on the card. These are the odds at the time of the screenshots; the prices do not update automatically.

Published before the official starting line-ups were checked. The more vulnerable leg is Leverkusen to score twice: one away goal loses that selection regardless of the overall score. El Clásico needs at least three goals in total. Neither market offers a push; both selections must win for the double to win. Main risks: Leverkusen rotation after a European away trip, player absences and a low-scoring Clásico. The evening match line-ups will only be available after the match in Germany has started. Historical hit rates are not probabilities of success.

02 / THE FULL PICTURE

Let the numbers speak.

Every published prediction counts.
Wins, losses and voids.

Predictions settled9Since our first publication
Win rate55.6%Wins / (wins + losses)
Profit at 1 unit per prediction+0.64 u.On each main prediction
Return on investment7.1%Profit / total units staked × 100%
ⓘCorrect-score scenarios are excluded from the main prediction statistics.

Main prediction history

One double per row. Assumed stake: 1 unit.

Swipe right to see all columns →
DateMatches & selectionsOddsStatusNet, units
Hoffenheim — Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen team total over 1.5 goals
Barcelona — Real MadridMatch total over 2.5 goals
Read analysis 		1.92Awaiting settlement—
Arsenal — EvertonMatch total under 4 goals — push at exactly 4
Utrecht — PEC ZwolleMatch total over 2.5 goals
Read analysis 		1.85Lost-1.00
Go Ahead Eagles — TelstarMatch total over 2.5 goals
Torino — MonzaMatch total over 2 goals — push at exactly 2
Read analysis 		1.88Won+0.88
Lille — GalatasarayBoth teams to score — Yes
Sporting CP — LASKMatch total over 2.5 goals
Read analysis 		2.01Won+1.01
IFK Norrköping — ÖrebroIFK Norrköping team total over 1.5 goals
Exeter — CreweMatch total under 3.5 goals
Read analysis 		1.94Won+0.94
Molde — StartMatch total over 2.5 goals
NEC Nijmegen — Fortuna SittardBoth teams to score — Yes
Read analysis 		1.94Won+0.94
Newcastle United — Aston VillaMatch total over 2 goals — push at exactly 2
Lille — BrestLille draw no bet — push if drawn
Read analysis 		1.83Lost-1.00
Eintracht Frankfurt — KölnMatch total over 2.5 goals
Rapid Vienna — HartbergMatch total over 2.5 goals
Read analysis 		1.84Lost-1.00
Ferencváros — Viktoria PlzeňFerencváros draw no bet — push if drawn
Dinamo Zagreb — AnderlechtDouble chance: Dinamo Zagreb or draw (1X)
Read analysis 		1.87Won+0.87
Bodø/Glimt — Borussia DortmundMatch total over 2.5 goals
Slovan Bratislava — StuttgartMatch total over 2.5 goals
Read analysis 		1.85Lost-1.00
Predictions settled 9+0.64
Matches settled18One match per record
Matches with a hit4At least one scenario matched
Matches without a hit14No published scenario matched
Scenario hit rate22.2%Hits / settled matches

A hit means the final score matched at least one published scenario. All scenarios for a match count as one record. Pending and void matches are excluded from the percentage. No return is calculated without recorded odds.

Awaiting settlement: 2. Voided: 0.

Correct-score history

Original scenarios and the final result of each match.

Swipe right to see all columns →
DateMatchScore scenariosFinal scoreStatus
Hoffenheim — Bayer LeverkusenRead analysis
1:22:21:3
—Awaiting settlement
Barcelona — Real MadridRead analysis
2:12:23:1
—Awaiting settlement
Arsenal — EvertonRead analysis
1:02:02:1
2:0Hit
Utrecht — PEC ZwolleRead analysis
2:13:12:2
1:1No hit
Go Ahead Eagles — TelstarRead analysis
2:13:12:2
3:2No hit
Torino — MonzaRead analysis
1:12:11:2
3:2No hit
Lille — GalatasarayRead analysis
1:12:11:2
2:4No hit
Sporting CP — LASKRead analysis
3:02:13:1
2:3No hit
IFK Norrköping — ÖrebroRead analysis
2:02:13:1
2:2No hit
Exeter — CreweRead analysis
1:11:00:1
2:0No hit
Molde — StartRead analysis
3:02:13:1
6:1No hit
NEC Nijmegen — Fortuna SittardRead analysis
1:12:11:2
2:2No hit
Newcastle United — Aston VillaRead analysis
1:12:11:2
0:1No hit
Lille — BrestRead analysis
1:01:12:1
1:1Hit
Eintracht Frankfurt — KölnRead analysis
2:12:21:2
1:0No hit
Rapid Vienna — HartbergRead analysis
2:13:02:2
3:1No hit
Dinamo Zagreb — AnderlechtRead analysis
1:12:11:0
1:0Hit
Ferencváros — Viktoria PlzeňRead analysis
1:12:11:0
2:1Hit
Bodø/Glimt — Borussia DortmundRead analysis
2:12:21:3
1:0No hit
Slovan Bratislava — StuttgartRead analysis
1:21:32:2
0:3No hit
03 / ANOTHER PERSPECTIVE

What about
the exact score?

A separate look at how a match might unfold. Possible correct scores, the reasoning behind them and their own results record.

Correct-score statistics →
HIGH UNCERTAINTY

A correct score is an additional hypothesis. It is not part of Safe Standard or its statistics.

25 Oct 2026 · SCORE SCENARIOS

Hoffenheim — Bayer Leverkusen

1:22:21:3

Possible scenarios with Leverkusen scoring at least twice. Correct scores are tracked separately and are not part of the main double.

Awaiting settlement
25 Oct 2026 · SCORE SCENARIOS

Barcelona — Real Madrid

2:12:23:1

Possible high-scoring Clásico scenarios. The main match total also allows 1:2 or 3:0. Correct scores are tracked separately from the double.

Awaiting settlement
24 Oct 2026 · SCORE SCENARIOS

Arsenal — Everton

1:02:02:1

Possible scenarios with a limited number of goals. Correct scores are tracked separately and are not part of the main double.

Final score: 2:0 · An exact match

Won
24 Oct 2026 · SCORE SCENARIOS

Utrecht — PEC Zwolle

2:13:12:2

Possible high-scoring scenarios with goals from both teams. The main over 2.5 selection also allows one team to score all three goals. Correct scores are tracked separately.

Final score: 1:1 · No exact match

Lost
23 Oct 2026 · SCORE SCENARIOS

Go Ahead Eagles — Telstar

2:13:12:2

Possible high-scoring scenarios. Correct scores are tracked separately and are not part of the main double.

Final score: 3:2 · No exact match

Lost
23 Oct 2026 · SCORE SCENARIOS

Torino — Monza

1:12:11:2

A 1:1 score gives a push on the main over 2 selection; 2:1 or 1:2 wins. Correct scores are separate from the main double.

Final score: 3:2 · No exact match

Lost
21 Oct 2026 · SCORE SCENARIOS

Lille — Galatasaray

1:12:11:2

Possible scenarios with both teams scoring, rather than separate bets or guaranteed results. Tracked separately from the main double.

Final score: 2:4 · No exact match

Lost
21 Oct 2026 · SCORE SCENARIOS

Sporting CP — LASK

3:02:13:1

Possible high-scoring scenarios with a home advantage. Correct scores are substantially less predictable and are not part of the main double.

Final score: 2:3 · No exact match

Lost
20 Oct 2026 · SCORE SCENARIOS

IFK Norrköping — Örebro

2:02:13:1

Score scenarios from the final analysis. Correct-score hypotheses are separate from the main prediction and are excluded from the double’s odds and statistics.

Final score: 2:2 · No exact match

Lost
20 Oct 2026 · SCORE SCENARIOS

Exeter — Crewe

1:11:00:1

Score scenarios from the final analysis. Correct-score hypotheses are separate from the main prediction and are excluded from the double’s odds and statistics.

Final score: 2:0 · No exact match

Lost
18 Oct 2026 · SCORE SCENARIOS

Molde — Start

3:02:13:1

Score scenarios from the final analysis. Three possible outcomes of one match; correct scores are tracked separately from the main double and are excluded from its odds.

Final score: 6:1 · No exact match

Lost
18 Oct 2026 · SCORE SCENARIOS

NEC Nijmegen — Fortuna Sittard

1:12:11:2

Score scenarios from the final analysis. Three possible outcomes of one match; correct scores are tracked separately from the main double and are excluded from its odds.

Final score: 2:2 · No exact match

Lost
17 Oct 2026 · SCORE SCENARIOS

Newcastle United — Aston Villa

1:12:11:2

Score scenarios from the final analysis. Three possible outcomes of one match; correct scores are tracked separately from the main double and are excluded from its odds.

Final score: 0:1 · No exact match

Lost
17 Oct 2026 · SCORE SCENARIOS

Lille — Brest

1:01:12:1

Score scenarios from the final analysis. Three possible outcomes of one match; correct scores are tracked separately from the main double and are excluded from its odds.

Final score: 1:1 · An exact match

Won
16 Oct 2026 · SCORE SCENARIOS

Eintracht Frankfurt — Köln

2:12:21:2

Scenarios from the final analysis. Correct scores are tracked separately from the main double and are excluded from its odds. These are three possible scores for one match, not three separate main predictions.

Final score: 1:0 · No exact match

Lost
16 Oct 2026 · SCORE SCENARIOS

Rapid Vienna — Hartberg

2:13:02:2

Scenarios from the final analysis. Correct scores are tracked separately from the main double and are excluded from its odds. These are three possible scores for one match, not three separate main predictions.

Final score: 3:1 · No exact match

Lost
15 Oct 2026 · SCORE SCENARIOS

Dinamo Zagreb — Anderlecht

1:12:11:0

Working scenarios from the original analysis. Correct scores are separate, highly uncertain hypotheses; they are excluded from the main double and its statistics.

Final score: 1:0 · An exact match

Won
15 Oct 2026 · SCORE SCENARIOS

Ferencváros — Viktoria Plzeň

1:12:11:0

Working scenarios from the original analysis. Correct scores are separate, highly uncertain hypotheses; they are excluded from the main double and its statistics.

Final score: 2:1 · An exact match

Won
14 Oct 2026 · SCORE SCENARIOS

Bodø/Glimt — Borussia Dortmund

2:12:21:3

Scenarios from the original analysis: a high-scoring match with different possible winners. These are scenarios, not three separate main predictions.

Final score: 1:0 · No exact match

Lost
14 Oct 2026 · SCORE SCENARIOS

Slovan Bratislava — Stuttgart

1:21:32:2

Scenarios from the original analysis: both teams scoring, with a Stuttgart win or a draw. Tracked separately from the double.

Final score: 0:3 · No exact match

Lost
04 / THE GOLCODE METHOD

First the reasoning.
Then the prediction.

Safe Standard is our main format.
Two selections, each with a clear explanation.

01

Look beyond recent form

We examine 8–12 competitive matches: means and medians, home and away records, and the strength of previous opponents.

02

Choose a clear market

Double chance, draw no bet, match totals and team totals. Short odds alone do not make a selection reliable.

03

Keep the complete record

We record selections and odds before kick-off. After the match, we add the result and preserve the original prediction in the archive.

A new game every day.

Clear reasoning behind every prediction.

Back to predictions ↑
TRANSPARENT RECORD KEEPING

How we calculate statistics

One published Safe Standard main prediction counts as one record. If it is a double, we count the outcome of the whole double.

We assume a stake of 1 unit on each prediction. A win earns the settled decimal odds minus 1; a loss is minus 1; a fully void prediction returns 0 profit. If one leg of a double is void, its odds become 1.

Win rate = wins / (wins + losses). Voids are excluded from this percentage. ROI = total profit / number of settled predictions × 100%. Unsettled predictions are excluded.

Correct scores are tracked separately. Odds are recorded at publication and may subsequently change at the bookmaker.